Analyst sees Apple Inc (AAPL)’s iPad Sales Falling

Although iPhone sales have been quite strong for Apple in the last few months, there might be some bad news on the horizon for Apple, according to information obtained from KGI Securities analyst Ming Chi Kuo. While the iPhone may be popular, Apple’s tablet product, the iPad, may not sell as well next year. Kuo is predicting that during the first calendar quarter of 2015, 9.8 million iPads will be sold, which represents a year-over-year drop of 40%.

ipad air 2


Forecast of 21.5 million iPads for Holiday Quarter: -18% year over year

Kuo has forecasted 21.5 million iPads sold this holiday quarter, which would represent a year-over-year decline of 18%. A lack of new apps, a slow season and saturation in the target market are going to be the factors behind a decline in iPad sales in 2015.

Ming Chi Kuo has a good track record on Apple

Anyone that follows technology news will have probably heard of Ming Chi Kuo before. He has been touted as the world’s best Apple analyst. He has previously given accurate information about Apple product releases and has insider data from Apple’s supply chain, which he most probably used to create his forecast for the next two quarters. When it comes to predictions about anything Apple-related, he is usually correct, which is why many business publications trust him as a source of information.

This means that unless something really dramatic happens during the next two quarters that is able to turn things around for Apple, it looks like their iPad sales are going to take a hit. It might even cast doubt as to whether the iPad will actually become the next great business line for Apple.

Of course, the company isn’t going to be hurt too badly even if iPad sales are slow at the beginning of 2015. As mentioned previously, their star product, the iPhone, is selling extremely well around the world and sales of the iPhone are expected to remain strong for the time being. But in the long run, slow iPad sales are likely to have a negative impact on Apple, which is trying to diversify and grow its numerous business lines.

Are there any other reasons why iPad sales are expected to slow down rather significantly in 2015’s first quarter? That question doesn’t have any precise answers as of now, but there are a couple of things that will come into play.

Tablet upgrade cycle longer, No killer apps pushing upgrade

Unlike smartphones, people tend to keep their tablets longer. According to a statement made during the company’s last earnings calls, Apple CEO Tim Cook stated that the iPad has only been sold by Apple for the last four years and that the company doesn’t yet have an accurate picture of what the upgrade cycle will look like. Some people might originally have wanted an iPad, but chose a Mac instead. Finally, there is a trend in the smartphone world where displays are growing bigger. This may have led some people who would have bought a tablet to opt for a smartphone with a bigger screen instead, such as the iPhone 6 +.

James Vrionis

James Vrionis knows Technology and is Based in the Palm Desert Area. Contact him at

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